tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27115100262267530262024-03-12T16:58:18.537-07:00Meltdown 2008A Voluntary Contraction of the Credit Market resulting in the Involuntary Liquidation of Physical & Derivative Assets at a Material Loss Causing a Severe Recession or even possibly a systemic financial meltdownUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger238125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2711510026226753026.post-61859544595456686272010-01-04T11:41:00.000-08:002010-01-04T13:36:49.119-08:00Thoughts on 2010"Today's increasingly bullish sentiment is consistent with a B (or 2) wave, which would imply a setup for the most destructive (for financial wealth and confidence) phase of a C-wave decline, lasting 2-3 years. "What "BC" is describing is similar to the sucker bounce in the early 1930 after the stock market crash of 1929. SourceBy mid to late 2010, we will have lanced the biggest boils of the Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2711510026226753026.post-77415425409536788392009-09-13T13:00:00.000-07:002009-09-13T13:07:20.893-07:00Warning: The Deficits Are Coming! (WSJ Sept 4, 2009)The former head of the Government Accountability Office is on a crusade to alert taxpayers to their true obligations. By JOHN FUNDWashington, D.C.David Walker sounds like a modern-day Paul Revere as he warns about the country's perilous future. "We suffer from a fiscal cancer," he tells a meeting of the National Taxpayers Union, the nation's oldest anti-tax lobby. "Our off balance sheet Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2711510026226753026.post-57565369771722773232009-09-04T09:29:00.000-07:002009-09-04T09:31:14.039-07:00How Overpriced Is The S&P 500?Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2711510026226753026.post-91200890266084479052009-07-06T10:45:00.000-07:002009-07-06T10:46:33.827-07:00America's Fiscal Train Wreck by Richard Berner at Morgan Stanley (New York)United StatesAmerica's Fiscal Train WreckJuly 06, 2009 By Richard Berner | New York America's long-awaited fiscal train wreck is now underway. Depending on policy actions taken now and over the next few years, federal deficits will likely average as much as 6% of GDP through 2019, contributing to a jump in debt held by the public to as high as 82% of GDP by then - a doubling over the next decadeUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2711510026226753026.post-18561708246388069372009-05-20T15:37:00.000-07:002009-05-23T15:43:07.755-07:00S&P 500 at Critical PointThe dashed line is the closing price today (May 20, 2009). The market is only off 42% from the peak. The S&P has just turned down below its 200-day moving average. Not a good sign for the bulls!Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2711510026226753026.post-60414992359039108272009-05-20T15:26:00.000-07:002009-05-23T15:33:17.616-07:00New Mortgage Loan Reset / Recast ChartMatt Padilla at the O.C. Register presents a new reset / recast chart from Credit Suisse: Loan reset threat looms till 2012Credit Suisse is using recast dates for Option ARMs and reset dates for all other loans. As Tanta noted: "Reset" refers to a rate change. "Recast" refers to a payment change.Resets are not a huge problem as long as interest rates stay low, but recasts could be significant. Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2711510026226753026.post-25610811369136206592009-05-13T20:40:00.000-07:002009-05-13T20:41:24.488-07:00Madoff PBS FrontlineUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2711510026226753026.post-2543827321260375762009-03-30T15:58:00.000-07:002009-03-30T16:01:39.955-07:00Mortgage Rate Resets (2010 + 2011) Still heavy Option Arms + ALT A in 2010 and 2011Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2711510026226753026.post-30018886889084930492009-03-29T12:25:00.000-07:002009-03-29T12:32:52.562-07:00The Quiet Coup (Simon Johnson MIT/IMF){T]he global economy continues to deteriorate, the banking system in east-central Europe collapses, and—because eastern Europe’s banks are mostly owned by western European banks—justifiable fears of government insolvency spread throughout the Continent. Creditors take further hits and confidence falls further. The Asian economies that export manufactured goods are devastated, and the commodity Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2711510026226753026.post-27401300088151125112009-03-24T20:31:00.000-07:002009-03-24T20:38:54.444-07:00U.S. Total Credit Market Debt by Sector: 1929-2008Nice chart from Morgan Stanley breaking down total U.S. credit market debt as a percentage of GDP since 1929. The differences in the debt’s composition from the 1930s to today are striking, with households, not corporates, being the credit problem children today. Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2711510026226753026.post-87552976566441023452009-03-24T08:58:00.000-07:002009-03-24T09:00:32.443-07:00Dark Musings (Steve Waldman @Interfluidity)The news of today is the Geithner plan. I think this plan might work very well in terms of repairing bank balance sheets.Of course the whole notion of repairing bank balance sheet is a lie and misdirection. The balance sheets we should want to see repaired are household balance sheets. Banks have failed us profoundly. We want them reorganized, not repaired. A world in which the banks are all Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2711510026226753026.post-2945418545851531172009-03-15T09:03:00.000-07:002009-03-15T09:14:36.803-07:00China has more to worry about than its Treasury holdingsPremier Wen ...“[w]e have lent a huge amount of money to the U.S. Of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I am definitely a little worried.” He called on the United States to “maintain its good credit, to honor its promises and to guarantee the safety of China’s assets.”Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2711510026226753026.post-19409997082519836322009-03-08T16:26:00.000-07:002009-03-08T16:27:07.706-07:00Citibank Nationalized CommercialThe New F***ing Citibank - watch more funny videosUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2711510026226753026.post-16799548739585701702009-02-24T15:44:00.000-08:002009-02-24T15:53:44.565-08:00Mysterious Plans by Paul KrugmanAt the top are a bank’s assets. Below are its obligations to various parties, with decreasing seniority from left to right. I’ve drawn it to embody a pessimistic assumption about the bank’s finances, because those are the cases we’re interested in: the bank’s assets aren’t enough to cover its debts. Nonetheless, the stock, both preferred and common, has a positive market value. Why? Because of Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2711510026226753026.post-77418792684076669872009-02-20T20:44:00.000-08:002009-02-21T12:09:35.905-08:00Nationalizing Bad Banks to Save the Rest!Use this Video Link not the Play Button above.Yves Smith, editor of The Naked Capitalism blog, thinks it's just a matter of semantics and that nationalization is nothing new. "We already do nationalization in this country. It's called the FDIC resolving banks," she says on Fast Money.And she tells the traders “nationalization could be a good alternative,” once the government clarifies what Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2711510026226753026.post-71466480847648535452009-02-16T09:15:00.000-08:002009-02-16T09:22:29.659-08:00Cumulative Bank Failures Over TimeUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2711510026226753026.post-36893270134676599182009-02-09T20:24:00.000-08:002009-02-09T20:27:21.125-08:00How The World Almost Came To An End At 2PM On September 18LiveLeak has caught a scary moment of previously undisclosed insight by Paul Kanjorski where he reveals some facts that have not been captured by the media previously. At 2 minutes and 20 seconds in the video below, Democratic Representative Kanjorski explains how the Federal Reserve told Congress members about a "tremendous draw-down of money market accounts in the United States, to the tune of Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2711510026226753026.post-70239700934653317862009-02-02T18:08:00.000-08:002009-02-02T18:10:11.423-08:00Rise & Fall of U.S. Mortgage & Credit MarketsUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2711510026226753026.post-60806390164915848602009-02-01T20:31:00.000-08:002009-02-01T20:32:43.889-08:00The Paulson Funds 2008 Yeard End ReportUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2711510026226753026.post-66711169379317675312009-01-30T18:56:00.000-08:002009-01-30T18:57:47.277-08:00PBS Frontline February 17, 2009 PreviewUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2711510026226753026.post-48071135692802083372009-01-23T16:38:00.000-08:002009-01-23T16:40:07.681-08:00Bank Market Capitalization Q2 2007 v. Jan 20 2009Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2711510026226753026.post-60001747093201838532009-01-01T18:05:00.001-08:002009-01-01T18:06:26.959-08:00Four Bad Bears - Where is this one headed?Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2711510026226753026.post-963777030097340912008-12-27T12:21:00.000-08:002008-12-27T12:22:31.719-08:00Faces of the Crisis: Nouriel RoubiniIn the buzzy, scruffy warren of offices in New York from which Nouriel Roubini runs his economics aggregration and commentary website, one of the young cyber-serfs has taped a New York Post story about the boss to the chalky wall. “NYU Playboy Warns: Econ Party’s Over”, the sub-heading declares, next to a photograph of a smiling, open-shirted Mr Roubini, sandwiched between two attractive young Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2711510026226753026.post-89443887431889836252008-12-14T15:03:00.000-08:002008-12-14T15:05:36.579-08:00Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Charlie RoseUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2711510026226753026.post-80793575315193106842008-12-07T11:49:00.000-08:002008-12-08T09:58:28.946-08:00Deflation VirusNobel Laureate Robert Mundell warned last week that America faces disaster unless the Bernanke policy is reversed immediately. This is a minority view, but one held by a disturbingly large number of theorists. History will judge.Henry Kaufman, former economist for Salomon Brothers, said, "we’ve got to kick our addiction to debt if the world is to regain some semblance of financial sanity." Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0