Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Housing Statistics - U.S., 20 Cities, Los Angeles

U.S. Sales & Inventory - New & Existing

Composite 20 City Case Shiller House Price Index Prices & Table - Prices Down 15.8% but L.A. down 24.5%

Los Angeles Case Shiller - Low, Mid-Range, High Price Range (Mid-Range down 29.8%)

The low price range is less than $401,614. Prices in this range have fallen 36.5% from the peak.

The mid-range is $401,614 to $606,600. Prices have fallen 29.8%.

The high price range is above $606,600. Prices in this range have fallen 20.0% from the peak.

Looking at the data in real terms probably provides a better idea of how much further prices will fall. If prices fall to the January 2000 level in real terms (shown as 100 on the graph), then the high end has fallen about half way from the peak, and the low end about 2/3 of the way from the peak in Los Angeles.

I've noted this before: In a number of previous housing busts, real prices declined for 5 to 7 years before finally hitting bottom. That is my expectation for the duration of the price declines in the bubble areas. The bottom for real prices will probably be in the 2010 to 2012 period. The less bubbly areas will probably bottom sooner.

If this bust follows the historical pattern, we will continue to see real price declines for several more years, and the rate of decline will probably slow (imagine somewhat of a bell curve on those graphs).

CAR reported for June 2008 that SFR median prices had declined 37.7% for the state ($591,280 to $368,250) and 32.3% for LA County ($586,020 to $396,560).

Data Quick Southern California SFR & Condo Median Sold Price by Zip Code